2024 Playoff Chances for the Yankees: Baseball Reference vs. Fangraphs and BetRivers Sportsbook

Baseball Reference Predicts Yankees to End Season in Last Place

According to the stat analysts at Baseball Reference, the Yankees’ playoff chances in 2024 are not looking good. They project the team to have only a 2.7 percent chance of making it to the postseason and winning just 71.6 games, which is worse than both the Pirates and Ohtani-less Angels. However, other sources such as Fangraphs and BetRivers Sportsbook are more optimistic about the Yankees’ chances for success in 2024.

Fangraphs predicts that the Yankees will win 88 games in 2024, which would be the fourth-most wins in all of baseball. On the other hand, BetRivers Sportsbook is even more bullish on the Yankees, projecting them to win 91.5 games with a third-best odds to win the most games in baseball at +650.

However, Baseball Reference’s projections are based on their Simple Rating System (SRS) which calculates run differential and strength of schedule from previous year’s prior 100 games. This equation does not take into account injuries, players or variance but focuses solely on run differentials and changes in schedule difficulty. Despite this pessimistic outlook, the Yankees have made significant offseason acquisitions including Juan Soto that should greatly improve their offense. Additionally if Aaron Judge can stay healthy and play a full season, then there is still hope for a turnaround from their disappointing 2023 season.

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